俄罗斯卢布/人民币 (RUBCNY) 加自选

俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率为104，自12月6日反弹至98的一个月高点以来一直保持抛售，但没有对俄罗斯央行出人意料的加息做出任何反应。尽管对消费者和企业不可持续的高通胀预期的担忧日益减弱，俄罗斯央行仍将其关键利率保持在创纪录的21%，令人惊讶的是，市场在200个基点和300个基点的加息之间出现了松散的分歧。自6月以来，由于对莫斯科交易所的制裁促使俄罗斯央行设定外汇价格，这种沉默的反应突显了卢布对外国市场的孤立。今年，由于对俄罗斯金融业的制裁和对主要贸易伙伴中国大宗商品需求的下降，卢布对主要货币对的汇率暴跌，导致外国对卢布的需求暴跌。莫斯科愿意让卢布贬值，因为货币贬值增加了能源出口国的出口收入，而能源出口国是俄罗斯预算的主要收入来源。

The Russian ruble was at 104 per USD, holding its selloff since rebounding to the one-month high of 98 touched on December 6th, but refraining from showing any reaction to the Bank of Russia’s unexpected rate hold. The Bank of Russia held its key rate at a record-high 21% despite flagging concerns of unsustainably high inflation expectations for consumers and businesses, surprising markets that were loosely split between hikes of 200bps and 300bps. The muted reaction underscored the isolation of the ruble to foreign markets as sanctions on the Moscow Exchange drove the CBR to set forex prices since June. The currency has plunged against major pairs this year as sanctions on the Russian financial sector and lower commodity demand for key trading partner China drove foreign demand for rubles to plummet. This was magnified by Moscow’s willingness to let the ruble depreciate as a weaker currency raises export revenues for energy exporters, a key revenue source for Russia’s budget.

周五，MOEX俄罗斯指数飙升至2550点，延续了从本周触及的21个月低点2377点的反弹，此前俄罗斯央行的紧缩周期意外暂停，与卢布走软的影响相一致。此前有报道称，CBR行长Nabiullina会见了警告央行不要警告利率的政界人士和商界领袖。尽管保持不变，央行还是提高了通胀预测。受西方国家更多制裁和中国经济疲软的影响，该指数将在年底下跌近20%，这限制了其主要客户对俄罗斯商品的需求。此外，俄罗斯资产也受到莫斯科交易所制裁的压力，这阻碍了卢布交易，并限制了中东和亚洲主要投资者的融资机会。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的股价创下历史新低，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行和卢克石油公司的股价接近2023年中期以来的最低水平。

The MOEX Russia Index soared to toward the 2,550 mark on Friday, extending the rebound from the 21-month low of 2,377 touched this week after the unexpected pause in the Bank of Russia’s tightening cycle, aligned with the impact of a weaker ruble. The decision preceded reports that CBR Governor Nabiullina met with politicians and business leaders that have warned the central bank against warning interest rates. Despite the hold, the central bank raised inflation forecasts. The index is due to close the year nearly 20% down, pressured by the impact of more sanctions from Western countries and a weaker Chinese economy, which limited demand for Russian goods from its main client. Additionally, Russian assets were also pressured by sanctions on the Moscow Exchange, which hampered ruble trading and limited the financing availability from key Middle Eastern and Asian investors. Gazprom traded at a record low, and Sberbank and Lukoil traded near their lowest since mid 2023.

普京呼吁“平衡”后，俄罗斯央行维持利率不变。周五，俄罗斯央行将关键利率维持在21%，令市场感到意外，此前市场预计利率将上调2个百分点，并表示最近的紧缩政策为通胀降至目标创造了条件。

Russian central bank keeps rates on hold after Putin's call for 'balance'.The Russian central bank kept its key interest rate on hold at 21% on Friday, surprising the market, which had expected a 2 percentage point increase, and saying recent tightening had created conditions for inflation to fall towards its target.

俄罗斯央行在12月的会议上将其关键利率维持在21%的历史高点不变，这让市场感到意外，市场预计利率将上调200个基点至23%。此前有报道称，俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌利纳最近与普京总统和俄罗斯商界领袖进行了交谈，尽管通货膨胀飙升，但他们一直反对高利率。央行将低信贷活动作为暂停加息的理由，但重申，在家庭和企业的预期提高的情况下，潜在通胀继续上升，推动该行对2025年和2026年的通胀预测上升。央行还指出，卢布大幅走弱、预算支出不平衡以及持续的劳动力危机导致了通货膨胀飙升。11月的数据显示，年度整体通胀率为8.9%，但CBR的早期预测显示，12月的通胀率接近9.5%，为2023年2月以来的最高水平。

The Bank of Russia held its key interest rate unchanged at the record high of 21% in its December meeting, surprising markets that expected a 200bps rate hike to 23%. The decision took place following reports that CBR Governor Nabiullina recently talked with President Putin and Russian business leaders, who have been vocal against high interest rates despite soaring inflation. The central bank cited low credit activity as the warrant for the pause in rate hikes, but reiterated that underlying inflation continued to rise amid higher expectations from households and business, driving the bank’s inflation forecast to rise for 2025 and 2026. The central bank also noted that the significant weakening of the ruble, unbalanced budget spending, and the ongoing labor force crisis contributed to soaring inflation. November data showed that annual headline inflation was at 8.9%, but early forecasts from the CBR have December's print near 9.5%, translating to the highest since February 2023.