美元预测：DXY保持近2年高点，因美联储暗示2025年的降息减少。DXY本周上涨0.81%，因美联储暗示2025年降息减少，国债收益率攀升，通胀担忧持续存在。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Holds Firm Near 2-Year High as Fed Signals Fewer 2025 Cuts.DXY rises 0.81% for the week as the Fed signals fewer 2025 rate cuts, Treasury yields climb, and inflation concerns persist.

牙买加银行在2024年12月将其货币政策利率下调25个基点至6%，延续了今年早些时候开始的宽松周期。这一决定是基于通胀保持在目标范围内，2024年11月整体通胀率降至4.3%。尽管恶劣天气等挑战影响了价格，但通货膨胀预计将保持稳定。该行承认存在风险，例如牙买加贸易伙伴的潜在政策变化，但仍致力于保持低通胀和稳定，同时监测未来经济状况的轨迹。

The Bank of Jamaica cut its monetary policy rate by 25 basis points to 6% in December 2024, continuing its easing cycle that began earlier in the year. This decision is based on inflation staying within the target range, with headline inflation declining to 4.3% in November 2024. Despite challenges such as adverse weather affecting prices, inflation is expected to remain stable. The Bank acknowledged risks, such as potential policy changes from Jamaica’s trading partners, but remains committed to keeping inflation low and stable while monitoring the trajectory of future economic conditions.

在纽约，道琼斯指数周五上涨510点，涨幅1.21%。涨幅最大的是英伟达（2.46%）、联合健康（2.37%）和高盛（2.17%）。

In New York, the Dow Jones Index went up by 510 points or 1.21 percent on Friday. Top gainers were Nvidia (2.46%), UnitedHealth (2.37%) and Goldman Sachs (2.17%).

周五，Ibovespa指数上涨0.8%，收于122102点，从早盘下跌中恢复过来，将圣保罗交易所的周跌幅降至2%。自上周以来，央行的积极干预，包括今天30亿美元的现货拍卖，使货币市场干预总额达到237.5亿美元，有助于稳定巴西雷亚尔。然而，这些行动也突显了日益增长的财政风险，参议院批准的稀释PEC加剧了这一风险，削弱了政府的支出削减，并引发了人们对财政整顿的担忧。主要银行领涨，桑坦德银行、巴西银行、Itaúsa和Bradesco上涨0.9%至2.1%。表现强劲的包括Localiza、Rede D'Or、B3、Natura、Hypermarcas和Lojas Renner，其股价飙升2.3%至4.9%。相比之下，非周期性消费品和工业类股表现不佳，Ambev下跌3.8%，WEG下跌1.9%。

The Ibovespa gained 0.8% to close at 122,102 on Friday, recovering from early losses and reducing the São Paulo exchange’s weekly decline to 2%. The central bank’s aggressive interventions, including a $3 billion spot auction today, have brought total currency market interventions to $23.75 billion since last week, helping to stabilize the Brazilian real. However, these actions also underscored growing fiscal risks, amplified by the Senate’s approval of a diluted PEC that weakened the government’s spending cuts and raised concerns over fiscal consolidation. Major banks led the rebound, with Banco Santander, Banco do Brasil, Itaúsa, and Bradesco rising 0.9% to 2.1%. Strong performers included Localiza, Rede D'Or, B3, Natura, Hypermarcas, and Lojas Renner, which surged 2.3% to 4.9%. In contrast, consumer non-cyclicals and industrial stocks faltered, with Ambev dropping 3.8% and WEG falling 1.9%.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五上涨0.8%，收于24600点，结束了连续六天的下跌，部分缓解了2.7%的周跌幅。随着投资者重新评估美联储的政策前景，加拿大股市与美国股市一起反弹，追随华尔街主要指数的大幅复苏。北美股市在核心个人消费支出通胀指数低于预期后复苏，这提振了人们对美联储政策限制性减少的希望。债券收益率下降，提振了科技和金融等利率敏感行业。Shopify表现突出，上涨1.7%，而RBC、Brookfield和TD Bank上涨0.6%至1.4%。与黄金挂钩的股票也表现优异，受金价上涨的推动，Agnico Eagle、Barrick Gold和Franco Nevada上涨0.8%至1.4%。相比之下，能源行业面临持续压力，森科尔和帝国石油分别下跌0.4%和1.5%，原因是对美国潜在关税的担忧。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 0.8% to close at 24,600 on Friday, snapping a six-day losing streak and partially trimming some of its 2.7% weekly plunge. Canadian stocks rebounded alongside their US counterparts, tracking a sharp recovery in Wall Street’s major indices as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. North American equities recovered following a softer-than-expected core PCE inflation reading, fueling hopes for less restrictive Fed policy. Bond yields fell, boosting interest rate-sensitive sectors like technology and financials. Shopify was a standout performer, up 1.7%, while RBC, Brookfield, and TD Bank rose between 0.6% and 1.4%. Gold-linked stocks also outperformed, with Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, and Franco-Nevada gaining 0.8% to 1.4%, driven by higher gold prices. In contrast, the energy sector faced continued pressure, with Suncor and Imperial Oil dropping 0.4% and 1.5%, respectively, amid concerns over potential US tariffs.

美国股市在今年最后三个转折日反弹，标准普尔500指数上涨1%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.8%，道琼斯指数上涨497点。此前通胀数据低于预期，11月个人消费支出指数同比增长2.4%，略低于预期。这有助于缓解美联储预测2025年降息减少引发的市场担忧。政府关门的威胁和关税威胁带来的全球市场压力也打压了市场情绪。诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk）的新型肥胖药物在测试中没有达到目标，导致这家制药巨头的不良反应（ADR）暴跌17.7%，医疗保健行业成为人们关注的焦点。反过来，竞争对手礼来公司的股价上涨了1.4%。考虑到本周，三大股指均下跌2.3%，道琼斯指数创下2023年以来最糟糕的一周。

US stocks bounced back on the last triple witching day of the year, with the S&P 500 up 1%, the Nasdaq rising 0.8% while the Dow gained 497 points. The rally followed cooler-than-expected inflation data, with November’s PCE index showing a 2.4% year-over-year increase, slightly below expectations. This helped alleviate market concerns sparked by the Federal Reserve’s forecast of fewer rate cuts in 2025. Sentiment was also weighed down by the threat of a government shutdown and global market pressure from tariff threats. The healthcare sector took the spotlight after Novo Nordisk’s new obesity drug missed targets in its test, driving the pharmaceutical giant’s ADRs to plunge 17.7%. In turn, equities for competitor Eli Lilly gained 1.4%. Considering the week, all the three major averages sank 2.3% with the Dow booked its worst week since 2023.

天然气价格预测：长期牛市反转触发因素。天然气价格突破关键阻力位，在多个时间框架内确认了看涨反转信号，并为进一步上涨至4.33打开了大门。

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Long Term Bullish Reversal Triggers.Natural gas rallies above key resistance, confirming bullish reversal signals on multiple time frames and opening the door for extended gains toward 4.33.

2024年11月，卢森堡的失业率从一年前的5.7%上升到5.9%。这是自2021年5月以来的最高读数，有18625名求职者注册，比上一年增长了6.8%。这一增长在长期失业者、30岁以上人群和受过高等教育的工人中尤为明显。新注册人数略有下降5.2%，与2023年11月相比，加入ADEM的求职者人数有所减少。此外，领取全额失业救济金的人数增加了11.3%，突显出就业市场对支持的需求日益增长。

The unemployment Rate in Luxembourg rose to 5.9% in November 2024, from 5.7% a year earlier. It marked the highest reading since May 2021 as with 18,625 jobseekers registered, marking a 6.8% increase from the previous year. The rise was particularly noticeable among long-term unemployed individuals, those over 30, and highly educated workers. The number of new registrations dropped slightly by 5.2%, with fewer jobseekers joining the ADEM compared to November 2023. Additionally, the number of individuals receiving full unemployment benefits rose by 11.3%, highlighting a growing demand for support in the job market.

布伦特原油期货周五收于每桶72.9美元，小幅上涨，收复了早些时候的一些损失，但本周仍下跌2.5%。复苏之际，美元从两年高点走软，数据显示，在美联储降息两天后，通胀有所降温。中国的能源前景增加了市场的不确定性，因为中石化预测原油进口量可能在2025年达到峰值，石油消费量可能在2027年达到峰值。这些预测导致全球石油基准指数每周下跌。欧佩克+连续第五次下调了2024年的需求增长前景，强调了供应纪律的必要性。随着七国集团探索对俄罗斯油价上限采取更严格的措施，地缘政治紧张局势加剧。此外，当选总统特朗普提出，如果欧盟不解决贸易不平衡问题，特别是美国石油和天然气贸易不平衡，可能会对欧盟征收关税。

Brent crude oil futures settled slightly higher at $72.9 per barrel on Friday, recovering some earlier losses but still posting a 2.5% decline for the week. The recovery came as the US dollar softened from two-year highs, with data indicating cooling inflation just two days after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. China’s energy outlook added to market uncertainty, as Sinopec predicted crude imports could peak by 2025 and oil consumption by 2027. These forecasts contributed to the weekly losses in global oil benchmarks. OPEC+ downgraded its 2024 demand growth outlook for the fifth consecutive time, highlighting the need for supply discipline. Geopolitical tensions increased as the G7 explored stricter measures on Russian oil price caps.Additionally, President-elect Trump raised the possibility of tariffs on the EU if it doesn’t address trade imbalances, particularly in U.S. oil and gas.

周五，WTI原油期货上涨0.1%，收于每桶69.46美元，弥补了早些时候的一些损失，但本周仍下跌3%。复苏之际，美元从两年高点走软，数据显示，在美联储降息两天后，通胀有所降温。中国的能源前景增加了市场的不确定性，因为中石化预测原油进口量可能在2025年达到峰值，石油消费量可能在2027年达到峰值。这些预测导致全球石油基准指数每周下跌。欧佩克+连续第五次下调了2024年的需求增长前景，强调了供应纪律的必要性。随着七国集团探索对俄罗斯油价上限采取更严格的措施，地缘政治紧张局势加剧。此外，当选总统特朗普提出，如果欧盟不解决贸易不平衡问题，特别是美国石油和天然气贸易不平衡，可能会对欧盟征收关税。

WTI crude oil futures gained 0.1% to close at $69.46 per barrel on Friday, recovering some earlier losses but still posting a 3% decline for the week. The recovery came as the US dollar softened from two-year highs, with data indicating cooling inflation just two days after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. China’s energy outlook added to market uncertainty, as Sinopec predicted crude imports could peak by 2025 and oil consumption by 2027. These forecasts contributed to the weekly losses in global oil benchmarks. OPEC+ downgraded its 2024 demand growth outlook for the fifth consecutive time, highlighting the need for supply discipline. Geopolitical tensions increased as the G7 explored stricter measures on Russian oil price caps.Additionally, President-elect Trump raised the possibility of tariffs on the EU if it doesn’t address trade imbalances, particularly in U.S. oil and gas.

2024年10月，阿根廷的经济活动估计值同比下降0.7%，此前9月向上修正了2.5%的下降，好于预期的2.2%的下降。主要驱动因素包括农业增长放缓（2.3%对9月份的5.2%），采矿和采石业增长更快（7.4%对7.8%），而运输业的收缩加速（-0.6%对-0.1%）。与此同时，建筑业（-14.5%对-15.0%）、公用事业（-0.4%对-5.2%）和制造业（-2.3%对-5.9%）的收缩放缓。经季节性调整的数据显示增长了0.6%，而趋势周期指标增长了0.2%。

Argentina's economic activity estimator dropped by 0.7% year-on-year in October 2024, following an upwardly revised 2.5% decline in September, and better than the anticipated 2.2% drop. Key drivers included slower agriculture (2.3% vs. 5.2% in September) and mining and quarrying grew faster (7.4% vs. 7.8%), while the contraction accelerated for transportation (-0.6% vs. -0.1%). Meanwhile, contractions slowed in construction (-14.5% vs. -15.0%), contraction in utilities (-0.4% vs. -5.2%), and manufacturing (-2.3% vs. -5.9%). Seasonally adjusted data showed a 0.6% increase, while the trend-cycle indicator increased by 0.2%.

2024年11月，科索沃的贸易逆差从去年同期的5.173亿欧元收窄至4.73亿欧元。货物出口总额为9390万欧元，与2023年11月相比增长了22.8%。对欧盟的出口额达到3360万欧元，约占出口总额的35.8%，增长15.0%。德国是科索沃出口的最大接受国，占11.3%，其次是意大利，占3.2%，荷兰占2.7%。另一方面，进口额为5.669亿欧元，同比下降4.5%。科索沃从欧盟的进口额为2.425亿欧元，占进口总额的42.8%，增长了6.3%。主要进口来源是德国（14.3%）、意大利（5.1%）和希腊（3.7%）。

Kosovo’s trade deficit narrowed to EUR 473 million in November 2024, down from EUR 517.3 million in the same month the previous year. Exports of goods totaled 93.9 million Euros, reflecting a 22.8% increase compared to November 2023. Exports to the EU reached 33.6 million Euros, accounting for around 35.8% of total exports, and showing a 15.0% growth. Germany was the largest recipient of Kosovo’s exports, making up 11.3%, followed by Italy at 3.2% and the Netherlands at 2.7%. Imports, on the other hand, amounted to 566.9 million Euros, a decrease of 4.5% year-over-year. Kosovo’s imports from the EU were valued at 242.5 million Euros, or 42.8% of total imports, marking a 6.3% increase. The primary sources of imports were Germany (14.3%), Italy (5.1%), and Greece (3.7%).

2024年第三季度，阿根廷的经常账户盈余为14.01亿美元，与去年同期60.5亿美元的赤字大幅逆转。商品账户从2023年第三季度的13.7亿美元赤字大幅转变为53.7亿美元盈余。与此同时，服务缺口从16.8亿美元略微缩小至16.1亿美元。此外，一级账户赤字从34.6亿美元收窄至27.3亿美元，二级账户盈余从4.67亿美元降至3.63亿美元。

Argentina recorded a current account surplus of USD 1.401 billion in Q3 2024, a sharp reversal from the USD 6.05 billion deficit in the same period last year. The goods account shifted dramatically to a USD 5.37 billion surplus, up from a USD 1.37 billion deficit in Q3 2023. Meanwhile, the services gap slightly narrowed to USD 1.61 billion from USD 1.68 billion. Additionally, the primary account deficit narrowed to USD 2.73 billion from USD 3.46 billion, while the secondary account surplus fell to USD 363 million from USD 467 million, highlighting overall improvement despite some pressures.

哥伦比亚央行在12月将基准利率下调25个基点至9.5%，低于预期的50个基点的下调幅度，五名董事会成员支持这一举措，一名赞成下调50个基点，另一名则赞成下调75个基点。11月份的年通胀率从10月份的5.4%降至5.2%，但由于持续的服务通胀，核心通胀率保持在5.4%。在总资本形成激增20.3%的推动下，第三季度国内生产总值增长了2.0%，使今年迄今的增长率达到1.6%。然而，由于全球金融形势趋紧、美联储预期降息放缓以及哥伦比亚财政的不确定性，最近的汇率波动增加了通胀风险，限制了大幅降息的空间。劳动力市场保持稳定，失业率低于疫情前的水平。央行强调，未来的利率决定将取决于即将公布的经济数据，同时平衡通胀压力和增长复苏。

The Central Bank of Colombia reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 9.5% in December, less than the expected 50bps reduction, with five board members supporting the move, while one favored a 50bps cut and another a 75bps reduction. Annual inflation eased to 5.2% in November from 5.4% in October, though core inflation held at 5.4% due to persistent service inflation. GDP expanded by 2.0% in Q3, driven by a 20.3% surge in gross capital formation, lifting year-to-date growth to 1.6%. However, recent exchange rate volatility, stemming from tighter global financial conditions, slower expected Fed rate cuts, and Colombia’s fiscal uncertainty, has raised inflationary risks, limiting room for aggressive rate cuts. The labor market remained stable, with unemployment below pre-pandemic levels. The central bank emphasized that future rate decisions will depend on incoming economic data while balancing inflationary pressures and growth recovery.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率从12月19日的3.345%的月度高点回落至3.28%，追随美国国债收益率下降，因为低于预期的美国通胀数据加强了美联储进一步降息的理由。在国内，11月下调的平均核心通胀率保持在2.7%，超过了2.5%的预测，限制了加拿大央行进一步降息的灵活性，加剧了经济逆风。政府的财政更新将2025年的GDP增长预测修订为1.7%（低于1.9%），2026年为2.1%（低于2.2%），反映出增长势头放缓。在失业率上升和经济增长缓慢的情况下，中国银行最近将利率下调50个基点至3.25%，突显出其在平衡经济停滞和持续通胀方面的挑战。与此同时，鉴于财政部长克里斯蒂娅·弗里兰在管理贸易关系和财政稳定方面的关键作用，她因与特鲁多总理的政策分歧而辞职，加剧了不确定性。

Canada’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 3.28%, retreating from a monthly high of 3.345% on December 19, tracking US Treasury yields lower as softer-than-expected US inflation data strengthened the case for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Domestically, November’s trimmed-mean core inflation held at 2.7%, exceeding the 2.5% forecast, limiting the Bank of Canada’s flexibility to lower rates further and deepening economic headwinds. The government’s fiscal update revised GDP growth projections to 1.7% for 2025 (down from 1.9%) and 2.1% for 2026 (down from 2.2%), reflecting slowing momentum. The BoC’s recent 50bps rate cut to 3.25%, amid rising unemployment and sluggish growth, underscores its challenge in balancing economic stagnation and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation over policy disagreements with Prime Minister Trudeau has amplified uncertainty, given her critical role in managing trade relations and fiscal stability.