加元/瑞郎 (CADCHF) 加自选

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五上涨0.8%，收于24600点，结束了连续六天的下跌，部分缓解了2.7%的周跌幅。随着投资者重新评估美联储的政策前景，加拿大股市与美国股市一起反弹，追随华尔街主要指数的大幅复苏。北美股市在核心个人消费支出通胀指数低于预期后复苏，这提振了人们对美联储政策限制性减少的希望。债券收益率下降，提振了科技和金融等利率敏感行业。Shopify表现突出，上涨1.7%，而RBC、Brookfield和TD Bank上涨0.6%至1.4%。与黄金挂钩的股票也表现优异，受金价上涨的推动，Agnico Eagle、Barrick Gold和Franco Nevada上涨0.8%至1.4%。相比之下，能源行业面临持续压力，森科尔和帝国石油分别下跌0.4%和1.5%，原因是对美国潜在关税的担忧。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 0.8% to close at 24,600 on Friday, snapping a six-day losing streak and partially trimming some of its 2.7% weekly plunge. Canadian stocks rebounded alongside their US counterparts, tracking a sharp recovery in Wall Street’s major indices as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. North American equities recovered following a softer-than-expected core PCE inflation reading, fueling hopes for less restrictive Fed policy. Bond yields fell, boosting interest rate-sensitive sectors like technology and financials. Shopify was a standout performer, up 1.7%, while RBC, Brookfield, and TD Bank rose between 0.6% and 1.4%. Gold-linked stocks also outperformed, with Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, and Franco-Nevada gaining 0.8% to 1.4%, driven by higher gold prices. In contrast, the energy sector faced continued pressure, with Suncor and Imperial Oil dropping 0.4% and 1.5%, respectively, amid concerns over potential US tariffs.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率从12月19日的3.345%的月度高点回落至3.28%，追随美国国债收益率下降，因为低于预期的美国通胀数据加强了美联储进一步降息的理由。在国内，11月下调的平均核心通胀率保持在2.7%，超过了2.5%的预测，限制了加拿大央行进一步降息的灵活性，加剧了经济逆风。政府的财政更新将2025年的GDP增长预测修订为1.7%（低于1.9%），2026年为2.1%（低于2.2%），反映出增长势头放缓。在失业率上升和经济增长缓慢的情况下，中国银行最近将利率下调50个基点至3.25%，突显出其在平衡经济停滞和持续通胀方面的挑战。与此同时，鉴于财政部长克里斯蒂娅·弗里兰在管理贸易关系和财政稳定方面的关键作用，她因与特鲁多总理的政策分歧而辞职，加剧了不确定性。

Canada’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 3.28%, retreating from a monthly high of 3.345% on December 19, tracking US Treasury yields lower as softer-than-expected US inflation data strengthened the case for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Domestically, November’s trimmed-mean core inflation held at 2.7%, exceeding the 2.5% forecast, limiting the Bank of Canada’s flexibility to lower rates further and deepening economic headwinds. The government’s fiscal update revised GDP growth projections to 1.7% for 2025 (down from 1.9%) and 2.1% for 2026 (down from 2.2%), reflecting slowing momentum. The BoC’s recent 50bps rate cut to 3.25%, amid rising unemployment and sluggish growth, underscores its challenge in balancing economic stagnation and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation over policy disagreements with Prime Minister Trudeau has amplified uncertainty, given her critical role in managing trade relations and fiscal stability.

2024年10月，加拿大政府预算赤字从去年同期的70亿加元缩小到15亿加元。在2024/25财政年度的前七个月（4月至10月），该国录得145亿加元的赤字，比去年同期报告的151亿加元赤字有所改善。受向个人和省份转移支付增加的推动，项目支出增长了9.8%，而公共债务费用飙升了19.4%，反映了可销售债券和国库券的有效利率提高。与此同时，政府收入增长了10.7%，主要是由于企业和个人所得税收入增加。

Canada's government budget deficit narrowed to CAD 1.5 billion in October 2024, down from CAD 7 billion in the same month of the previous year. During the first seven months of the 2024/25 fiscal year (April-October), the country recorded a deficit of CAD 14.5 billion, an improvement from the CAD 15.1 billion deficit reported in the same period a year earlier. Program expenses rose by 9.8%, driven by increased transfers to persons and provinces, while public debt charges surged by 19.4%, reflecting higher effective rates on marketable bonds and treasury bills. Meanwhile, government revenues climbed by 10.7%, largely due to higher corporate and personal income tax revenue.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数小幅跌破24414点，标志着连续第七个交易日下跌，并使多伦多证交所每周暴跌约3.5%，因为经济正面临持续的价格压力和疲软的增长。前景依然黯淡，因为人们越来越期望加拿大央行可能会继续降息以应对疲软的经济表现，而11月以削减后的平均值衡量的核心通胀率仍稳定在2.7%。加拿大政府最近下调了其GDP增长预测，将2025年从1.9%修订为1.7%，将2026年从2.2%修订为2.1%。此外，出于对美国关税政策的担忧，财政部长克里斯蒂娅·弗里兰辞职加剧了市场的不安。大型电子商务巨头Shopify领跌1.7%，而能源生产商也落后，尤其是帝国石油公司下跌1.5%。相反，在金价上涨的情况下，主要矿业股限制了下跌。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index edged lower below the 24,414 mark on Friday, marking its seventh consecutive session of losses and setting the Toronto exchange for a weekly plunge of around 3.5% as the economy struggles with persistent price pressures and subdued growth. The outlook remains bleak, as expectations grow that the Bank of Canada may continue cutting rates in response to weak economic performance, while core inflation, as measured by the trimmed-mean, remained steady at 2.7% in November. The Canadian government recently lowered its GDP growth projections, revising 2025 to 1.7% from 1.9% and 2026 to 2.1% from 2.2%. Moreover, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's resignation, following concerns about U.S. tariff policies, has intensified market unease. Mega cap e-commerce giant Shopify led the decline with losses of 1.7%, while energy producers also lagged, particularly Imperial Oil shedding 1.5%. Conversely, major mining equities limited the decline amid rising gold prices.