欧元/纽币 (EURNZD) 加自选

德国DAX指数周一小幅下跌，新年假期前交易清淡，市场将于周二和周三收盘。西门子医疗股价下跌0.6%，此前西门子公司首席财务官拉尔夫·托马斯（Ralf Thomas）向德国商报表示，该公司正在审查其在医疗技术部门的多数股权。与此同时，投资者对西班牙12月通胀数据的反应显示，年利率为2.8%，高于预期，这增强了人们对欧洲央行逐步降息的预期。尽管周一有所下跌，但德国股市在2024年引领了地区涨幅，DAX指数今年上涨了约19%。

The German DAX slipped slightly on Monday in thin trading ahead of the New Year holiday, with markets set to close on Tuesday and Wednesday. Siemens Healthineers dropped 0.6% following comments from Siemens AG’s CFO Ralf Thomas, who told Handelsblatt that the company is reviewing its majority stake in the medical technology unit. Meanwhile, investors reacted to Spanish inflation data showing a higher-than-expected annual rate of 2.8% in December, reinforcing expectations for gradual ECB rate cuts. Despite Monday’s dip, German stocks have led regional gains in 2024, with the DAX up approximately 19% for the year.

CAC 40指数周一小幅下跌0.3%，至7333点，此前一个交易日上涨1%，因为大多数行业在新年假期前交易疲软，出现亏损。奢侈品股明显落后，LVMH下跌0.4%，爱马仕下跌0.3%，开云集团下跌0.4%。能源巨头TotalEnergies下跌0.6%，而工业巨头空中客车和施耐德电气分别下跌0.5%和0.6%。与此同时，在银行业，法国兴业银行、法国农业信贷银行和法国巴黎银行分别上涨0.7%、0.5%和0.3%。

The CAC 40 edged lower by 0.3% to 7,333 on Monday, following a 1% gain in the previous session, as most sectors slipped into the red amid subdued trading ahead of the New Year holiday. Luxury stocks were among the notable laggards, with LVMH dropping 0.4%, Hermès declining 0.3%, and Kering losing 0.4%. Energy giant TotalEnergies fell 0.6%, while industrial heavyweights Airbus and Schneider Electric slipped 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, in the banking sector, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, and BNP Paribas rose 0.7%, 0.5%, and 0.3%, respectively.

欧元升至1.043美元，保持在11月底的两年低点之上，因为西班牙通胀数据加剧了人们对欧洲央行逐步降息的预期。西班牙12月消费者价格同比上涨2.8%，高于11月的2.4%，超过2.6%的预测。这支持了欧洲央行的谨慎态度，其中包括2024年四次降息25个基点，预计2025年再降息四次，将存款利率降至2%。由于假期，欧元区其他主要经济体推迟发布数据，西班牙数据成为本周的焦点。2024年，欧元因央行政策分歧而下跌近6%。虽然欧洲央行计划逐步放松政策，但美联储将2025年的降息预测从四次下调至两次，从而加强了美元。当选总统唐纳德·特朗普领导下美国潜在政策变化的不确定性进一步影响了欧元的前景。

The euro increased to $1.043, holding above its late-November two-year low, as Spanish inflation data fueled expectations of gradual ECB rate cuts. Spain’s consumer prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in December, up from 2.4% in November and exceeding the 2.6% forecast. This supports the ECB’s cautious approach, which included four quarter-point rate cuts in 2024, with another four expected in 2025 to bring the deposit rate to 2%. Delayed data releases from other major euro-area economies due to holidays leave Spanish figures as the focus this week. The euro has declined nearly 6% in 2024, pressured by diverging central bank policies. While the ECB plans gradual easing, the Federal Reserve scaled back 2025 rate cut projections from four to two, strengthening the dollar. Uncertainty surrounding potential US policy changes under President-elect Donald Trump further weighs on the euro’s outlook.

富时MIB指数周一早盘下跌0.3%，反映出年底假期前的谨慎情绪。交易员们正在密切关注欧洲央行和美联储的利率前景，以及美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普即将上任的政府下经济政策的潜在影响。在大盘股中，法拉利（-0.9%）、普睿司曼（-1.1%）、莱昂纳多（-0.8%）和泰纳瑞斯（-0.7%）的跌幅显著。

The FTSE MIB fell by 0.3% in early trading on Monday, reflecting a cautious sentiment ahead of the year-end holiday season. Traders are closely monitoring the interest rate outlook of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, as well as the potential impact of economic policies under the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Among large-cap stocks, notable losses were seen from Ferrari (-0.9%), Prysmian (-1.1%), Leonardo (-0.8%), and Tenaris (-0.7%).