欧元/加元 (EURCAD) 加自选

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五上涨0.8%，收于24600点，结束了连续六天的下跌，部分缓解了2.7%的周跌幅。随着投资者重新评估美联储的政策前景，加拿大股市与美国股市一起反弹，追随华尔街主要指数的大幅复苏。北美股市在核心个人消费支出通胀指数低于预期后复苏，这提振了人们对美联储政策限制性减少的希望。债券收益率下降，提振了科技和金融等利率敏感行业。Shopify表现突出，上涨1.7%，而RBC、Brookfield和TD Bank上涨0.6%至1.4%。与黄金挂钩的股票也表现优异，受金价上涨的推动，Agnico Eagle、Barrick Gold和Franco Nevada上涨0.8%至1.4%。相比之下，能源行业面临持续压力，森科尔和帝国石油分别下跌0.4%和1.5%，原因是对美国潜在关税的担忧。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 0.8% to close at 24,600 on Friday, snapping a six-day losing streak and partially trimming some of its 2.7% weekly plunge. Canadian stocks rebounded alongside their US counterparts, tracking a sharp recovery in Wall Street’s major indices as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. North American equities recovered following a softer-than-expected core PCE inflation reading, fueling hopes for less restrictive Fed policy. Bond yields fell, boosting interest rate-sensitive sectors like technology and financials. Shopify was a standout performer, up 1.7%, while RBC, Brookfield, and TD Bank rose between 0.6% and 1.4%. Gold-linked stocks also outperformed, with Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, and Franco-Nevada gaining 0.8% to 1.4%, driven by higher gold prices. In contrast, the energy sector faced continued pressure, with Suncor and Imperial Oil dropping 0.4% and 1.5%, respectively, amid concerns over potential US tariffs.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率从12月19日的3.345%的月度高点回落至3.28%，追随美国国债收益率下降，因为低于预期的美国通胀数据加强了美联储进一步降息的理由。在国内，11月下调的平均核心通胀率保持在2.7%，超过了2.5%的预测，限制了加拿大央行进一步降息的灵活性，加剧了经济逆风。政府的财政更新将2025年的GDP增长预测修订为1.7%（低于1.9%），2026年为2.1%（低于2.2%），反映出增长势头放缓。在失业率上升和经济增长缓慢的情况下，中国银行最近将利率下调50个基点至3.25%，突显出其在平衡经济停滞和持续通胀方面的挑战。与此同时，鉴于财政部长克里斯蒂娅·弗里兰在管理贸易关系和财政稳定方面的关键作用，她因与特鲁多总理的政策分歧而辞职，加剧了不确定性。

Canada’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 3.28%, retreating from a monthly high of 3.345% on December 19, tracking US Treasury yields lower as softer-than-expected US inflation data strengthened the case for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Domestically, November’s trimmed-mean core inflation held at 2.7%, exceeding the 2.5% forecast, limiting the Bank of Canada’s flexibility to lower rates further and deepening economic headwinds. The government’s fiscal update revised GDP growth projections to 1.7% for 2025 (down from 1.9%) and 2.1% for 2026 (down from 2.2%), reflecting slowing momentum. The BoC’s recent 50bps rate cut to 3.25%, amid rising unemployment and sluggish growth, underscores its challenge in balancing economic stagnation and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation over policy disagreements with Prime Minister Trudeau has amplified uncertainty, given her critical role in managing trade relations and fiscal stability.

CAC 40指数周五下跌0.3%，收于7275点，延续了前一交易日的大幅下跌，触及近三周来的最低水平，投资者情绪因担心特朗普第二届政府的潜在影响而恶化，特别是对欧盟征收关税的威胁，除非成员国增加对美国石油和天然气的购买。这些言论加剧了人们对利率前景的担忧，进一步扰乱了市场。在国内方面，2024年11月法国生产者价格环比飙升3.2%，为2022年3月以来的最高涨幅。大多数股票以负值收盘，泰雷兹领跌，下跌1.4%。空中客车和安赛乐米塔尔也下跌，分别下跌1.1%和0.9%。然而，维旺迪、Teleperformance和雷诺帮助限制了下跌，涨幅在1.2%至2.4%之间。本周，CAC 40指数大幅下跌1.7%，连续第二周下跌。

The CAC 40 fell 0.3% to close at 7,275 on Friday, extending sharp losses from the previous session and hitting its lowest level in nearly three weeks, as investor sentiment soured amid concerns over the potential impact of a second Trump administration, particularly the threat of imposing tariffs on the European Union unless member states increase purchases of American oil and gas. These remarks compounded worries over the interest rate outlook, further unsettling markets. On the domestic front, French producer prices surged by 3.2% month-over-month in November 2024, the highest increase since March 2022. Most stocks ended in negative territory, with Thales leading the losses, shedding 1.4%. Airbus and ArcelorMittal also declined, falling 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively. However, Vivendi, Teleperformance, and Renault helped limit the decline, with gains ranging from 1.2% to 2.4%. For the week, the CAC 40 posted a significant loss of 1.7%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline.

欧洲股市减少了早些时候的跌幅，但周五仍收跌，得益于欧洲下午美国股市更加乐观，投资者重新考虑了美联储降息减少的影响。欧元区STOXX 50指数下跌0.2%，收于4870点，本周下跌2%。另一方面，STOXX 600指数下跌0.8%，收于503点，受欧洲市值最大的公司诺和诺德暴跌的压力。这家制药巨头股价下跌21%，此前测试结果显示，其新的肥胖药物未达到公司设定的目标。如果欧盟成员国不增加从美国公司购买石油和液化天然气，美国当选总统特朗普的关税威胁也会对股市造成压力。金融服务提供商领跌，荷兰国际集团、慕尼黑再保险和北欧联合银行各下跌1.6%以上。另一方面，消费周期性股限制了损失，Inditex、法拉利和大众汽车各上涨了1%以上。

European stocks trimmed earlier losses but still closed lower on Friday, benefitting from more optimistic US equity markets in the European afternoon as investors reconsidered the impact of fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Eurozone’s STOXX 50 eased 0.2% to close at 4,870, a 2% drop on the week. On the other hand, the STOXX 600 sank 0.8% to close at 503, pressured by the plunge for Novo Nordisk, the largest European company by market capitalization. The pharmaceutical giant closed 21% lower after test results showed that its new obesity drug missed the targets set by the company. Stocks were also pressured by threats of tariffs from US President-elect Trump should EU members not increase their purchases of oil and LNG from US companies. Financial services providers led the losses with ING, Munich Re, and Nordea dropping more than 1.6% each. On the other hand, consumer cyclicals limited the losses, with Inditex, Ferrari, and Volkswagen adding more than 1% each.