活牛 (LiveCattle) 加自选

周四，美元指数最近反弹至104.4左右，徘徊在近三个月来的最高水平，因为人们越来越期望美联储在进一步降息时会更加谨慎，前总统唐纳德·特朗普重新入主白宫的可能性也越来越大。美元也受到美国国债收益率上升的支撑，基准10年期国债周三达到4.26%的盘中高点。这些举措出台之际，美国强劲的就业、消费者通胀和零售销售数据表明经济仍然强劲。美联储的施密德本周表示，他不希望采取过大的举措，而美联储的哈克则呼吁采取更温和的方法来进一步放松。在政治方面，市场押注特朗普可能会在11月获胜，鉴于他的通胀政策，如提高关税和降低税收，这对美元和国债收益率来说是一个看涨的情景。美元兑日元攀升至三个月高点，兑欧元攀升至四个月高点。

The dollar index held its recent rally to around 104.4 on Thursday, hovering at its highest levels in almost three months on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in cutting interest rates further and rising odds that former President Donald Trump will retake the White House. The greenback was also underpinned by rising Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year note reaching an intraday high of 4.26% on Wednesday. Those moves came as strong US jobs, consumer inflation and retail sales data indicated a still robust economy. Fed’s Schmid said this week he would not prefer outsized moves, while Fed’s Harker called for a more moderate approach to further easing. On the political front, markets are betting that Trump will likely win in November, a bullish scenario for the dollar and Treasury yields given his inflationary policies such as higher tariffs and lower taxes. The dollar climbed to a three-month high on the yen and a four-month high on the euro.