美联储的谨慎态度和强劲的服务业数据使美元具有弹性。衡量美元对一篮子货币价值的美元指数（DXY）周一保持上涨势头，实现了四天的复苏。强劲的标准普尔服务业采购经理人指数以及亚特兰大联邦储备委员会主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克的谨慎态度使其受益。

US Dollar is resilient on Fed caution, strong service sector data.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, held its upward momentum on Monday, tallying a four-day recovery. Strong S&P Services PMI as well as caution from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic is benefiting the buck.

美元预测：DXY上涨，交易员等待4月2日关键的关税公告。美元接近三周高点，市场预计4月2日将宣布关税。技术支撑位在103.984，可能上涨至104.941。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Climbs as Traders Await Critical April 2 Tariff Announcement.U.S. Dollar approaches three-week high as markets anticipate April 2 tariff announcement. Technical support at 103.984 with potential upside to 104.941 level.

美元指数升至104.3点以上，达到3月4日以来的最高水平，因为投资者评估了最新的PMI数据，并在4月2日互惠关税的最后期限之前等待特朗普总统贸易政策的进一步明确。最新调查显示，3月份美国商业活动有所回升，服务业的显著反弹抵消了制造业产出的再次下降。然而，由于对需求、关税和新政府更广泛的政策变化的担忧，未来一年的商业预期降至2022年10月以来的第二低水平。与此同时，特朗普周五表示，关税计划可能会有“灵活性”，周末的报道表明，这些措施的范围可能会缩小，可能会豁免某些行业。在货币政策方面，美联储重申，尽管今年晚些时候发出了两次降息的信号，但并不急于进一步降息。

The US dollar index rose above the 104.3 mark, reaching its highest level since March 4, as investors assessed the latest PMI data and awaited further clarity on President Trump’s trade policies ahead of the April 2 deadline for his reciprocal tariffs. The latest survey revealed that US business activity picked up in March, with a significant rebound in the service sector offsetting a renewed decline in manufacturing output. However, business expectations for the year ahead fell to their second-lowest level since October 2022, driven by concerns over demand, tariffs, and broader policy changes from the new administration. Meanwhile, Trump suggested Friday that there could be “flexibility” in the tariff plan, with weekend reports indicating the measures might be narrower in scope, potentially exempting certain industries. On the monetary policy front, the US Fed reiterated that it is in no rush to further cut interest rates, despite signaling two rate reductions later this year.

周一，美国10年期国债收益率上涨超过6个基点，至4.31%，达到一周多来的最高水平，交易员密切关注贸易政策发展并评估关键经济数据。报道显示，唐纳德·特朗普总统即将推出的关税浪潮预计将比他之前威胁的广泛措施更有针对性，这加剧了人们的希望，即定于4月2日生效的美国新关税可能比最初预期的要温和。与此同时，标普全球PMI数据显示，3月份服务业大幅扩张，而制造业则回落至收缩区间，由于关税的影响，投入价格大幅上涨。交易员目前正在对今年6月和9月美联储两次降息25个基点进行定价，12月第三次降息的可能性越来越大。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose over 6 basis points to 4.31% on Monday, reaching its highest level in more than a week, as traders closely monitored trade policy developments and assessed key economic data. Reports indicated that President Donald Trump’s upcoming wave of tariffs is expected to be more targeted than his previously threatened broad measures, fueling hopes that the new US tariffs set to take effect on April 2nd may be softer than initially anticipated. Meanwhile, flash S&P Global PMIs showed a sharper expansion in the services sector for March, while manufacturing slipped back into contraction territory, with input prices rising sharply due to tariff impacts. Traders are currently pricing in two quarter-point Fed rate cuts this year, in June and September, with growing odds of a third cut in December.