随着投资者分析新的国内数据,澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率稳定在4.55%左右。数据显示,澳大利亚11月零售额较上月增长0.8%,高于10月的0.5%,但低于市场1%的增长预期。此外,由于出口增长快于进口,该国在11月公布了10个月来最大的贸易顺差。与此同时,早些时候的数据显示,11月整体通胀率从2.1%上升至2.3%,但核心通胀率从3.5%放缓至3.2%。这些数字是在澳大利亚储备银行最近表示越来越有信心通货膨胀将很快可持续地恢复到2-3%的目标区间之后公布的,这为未来几个月的降息开辟了道路。市场目前暗示,在澳大利亚储备银行2月份的会议上,降息25个基点的可能性约为75%,预计到年底利率将降至3.60%左右。
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield remained steady at around 4.55% as investors parsed fresh domestic data. Data revealed Australian retail sales increased by 0.8% from a month earlier in November, up from a 0.5% gain in October but missing market expectations of a 1% growth. Additionally, the country posted its largest trade surplus in ten months in November, as exports rose faster than imports. Meanwhile, earlier data showed that headline inflation ticked up to 2.3% in November from 2.1%, but core inflation slowed to 3.2% from 3.5%. These figures came after the Reserve Bank of Australia recently expressed growing confidence that inflation would soon return sustainably to its 2-3% target band, opening a path to rate cuts in the coming months. Markets currently imply around a 75% chance of a 25bps reduction at the RBA’s February meeting, with rates seen to drop to around 3.60% by the end of the year.