地缘政治评论：中国的易说关税不会产生赢家。特朗普总统专注于互惠的眼泪和不公平的贸易行为，以开始他的2.0任期。他对所有中国商品征收10%的关税。

Geopolitical comments: China's Yi says that tariffs produce no winners.Pres. Trump is focused on reciprocal tears and unfair trade practices to start his 2.0 term . He has imposed 10% tariffs on all China goods.

据初步估计，2024年最后一个季度，中国的经常账户盈余为1807亿美元，是有史以来最大的，而去年同期为562亿美元，第三季度为1480亿美元。商品账户盈余从上年的1536亿美元急剧扩大至2496亿美元，原因是中国消费放缓和商品产能急剧扩张促使制造商依赖外国消费者。因此，出口激增11%，达到9364亿美元，而进口下降0.4%，达到6868亿美元。与此同时，服务缺口从610亿美元缩小到473亿美元，主要收入账户赤字从418亿美元缩小至263亿美元。反过来，次级收入账户大致稳定在46亿美元。

China recorded a current account surplus of $180.7 billion in the final quarter of 2024, the largest on record compared to $56.2 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year and $148 billion in Q3, according to a first estimate. The surplus in the goods account widened sharply to $249.6 billion from the $153.6 billion in the prior year, as the slowdown in China’s consumption and sharp expansion in capacity of goods production drove manufacturers to rely on foreign consumers. As a result, exports surged by 11% to $936.4 billion, while imports eased by 0.4% to $686.8 billion. In the meantime, the services gap narrowed to $47.3 billion from $61 billion, and the primary income account deficit narrowed to $26.3 billion from $41.8 billion. In turn, the secondary income account was loosely stable at $4.6 billion.

2025年1月，中国银行新增人民币贷款达到创纪录的51300亿元，高于12月的9900亿元，轻松超过8000亿元的预测。这一数字也高于2024年1月创下的49200亿元人民币的历史纪录，因为政策刺激有助于支撑信贷。此外，中国的贷款机构倾向于提前发放贷款，以确保高质量的客户，并在年初扩大市场份额。与此同时，货币供应量同比增长7%，低于上月的7.3%和7.2%的预测。社会融资总额（包括首次公开募股、信托公司贷款和债券销售等表外融资形式，是衡量经济中信贷和流动性的一个广泛指标）增至70600亿元人民币，也创下历史新高，而12月份为28600亿元人民币和预测为64000亿元。

Chinese banks extended a record level of CNY 5130 billion in new yuan loans in January 2025, above CNY 990 billion in December and easily beating forecasts of CNY 800 billion. The reading is also higher than the previous record CNY 4920 billion reached in January 2024, as policy stimulus helped to shore up credit. Also, Chinese lenders tend to front-load loans to secure high-quality customers and expand their market share at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, money supply rose 7% year-on-year, below 7.3% in the previous month and forecasts of 7.2%. Total social financing which is a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy as it includes off-balance sheet forms of financing such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies and bond sales, rose to CNY 7060B billion, also a record level, compared to CNY 2860 billion in December and forecasts of CNY 6400 billion.

中国1月M2货币供应量同比增长7.0%，而预期同比增长7.2%。随着新的人民币贷款在新年伊始飙升，这发出了一个信息。但这往往是进入中国新年季节的典型情况。

China January M2 money supply +7.0% vs +7.2% y/y expected.That's sending a message as new yuan loans surge higher to start the new year. But that tends to be typical going into the Chinese New Year seasonal period.