墨西哥10年期国债 (Mexico10Y) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率超过20.2，从12月18日的月度低点20.37回升，因为美元在低于预期的核心个人消费支出数据后走弱。这引发了人们对通货紧缩的希望，增强了人们对美联储进一步降息的预期，这进一步得到了美国国内生产总值和失业救济申请数据的支持。与此同时，墨西哥银行将利率下调25个基点至10%，与投资者预期一致。此次降息是在墨西哥通胀降温之际进行的，Banxico预计来年将进一步放松，因为预计到年底通胀将降至4.6%，尽管预计要到2026年中期才能达到3%的目标。

The Mexican peso strengthened past 20.2 per US dollar, recovering from the monthly low of 20.37 seen on December 18, as the US dollar weakened following softer-than-expected Core PCE data. This prompted hopes of disinflation, bolstering expectations for additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, further supported by positive US GDP and jobless claims data. Meanwhile, the Bank of Mexico cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 10%, aligning with investor expectations. This rate reduction comes amid cooling inflation in Mexico, with Banxico projecting further easing in the coming year amid forecasts of inflation cooling to 4.6% by year-end, though it does not anticipate reaching its 3% target until mid-2026.

尽管Banxico发出宽松信号，墨西哥比索仍上涨。墨西哥比索兑美元周四走强，此前墨西哥银行在美联储周三作出决定后按预期降息。在撰写本文时，美元/墨西哥比索的交易价格接近20.32，下跌0.17%。

Mexican Peso advances despite Banxico's easing signals.The Mexican Peso strengthened against the US Dollar on Thursday after the Banco de Mexico reduced interest rates as expected following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Wednesday decision. At the time of writing, USD/MXN trades near 20.32, down 0.17%.

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率仍高于20.3，接近12月18日的月度低点20.37，此前墨西哥银行将利率降至10%，并表示将进一步放松，可能会根据通货紧缩的速度和经济状况进行更大幅度的降息。Banxico指出，11月整体通胀率降至4.55%，核心通胀率降至3.58%，尽管第三季度出现反弹，但经济持续疲软，预计增长将放缓，就业减速。与此同时，美元走强对比索造成压力，这是由于美联储降息25个基点及其对2025年出乎意料的鹰派指导，目前预计只会降息两次，而不是之前预计的四次。

The Mexican peso remained above 20.3 per US dollar, near the monthly low of 20.37 seen on December 18, after the Bank of Mexico cut rates to 10% and signaled further easing, potentially with larger cuts, depending on the pace of disinflation and economic conditions. Banxico cited a decline in headline inflation to 4.55% in November, core inflation easing to 3.58%, and ongoing economic weakness despite Q3's rebound, with growth expected to soften and employment decelerating. Meanwhile, US dollar strength pressured the peso, driven by the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and its unexpectedly hawkish guidance for 2025, which now anticipates only two rate cuts instead of the four previously projected.

2024年12月，墨西哥银行一致将基准利率下调25个基点至10%，继续其预期的宽松周期。这与全球通货紧缩趋势相一致，尽管主要经济体的通货膨胀仍然持续存在，特别是在服务业。在国内，继之前的疲软之后，经济活动在第三季度反弹，但预计到2025年将有所放缓，就业减速，下行风险持续存在。通胀有所缓解，11月整体通胀率从10月的4.76%降至4.55%，核心通胀率从3.80%降至3.58%。虽然核心通胀反映了持续的下降趋势，但服务业的持续通胀导致Banxico略微上调了通胀预测，目前预计到2026年第三季度，整体通胀将收敛到3%的目标。该行表示，进一步降息可能是合适的，可能幅度更大，具体取决于通缩速度和经济前景。

The Bank of Mexico unanimously cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 10% in December 2024, continuing its easing cycle as expected. This aligns with global disinflation trends, though inflation in major economies remains persistent, particularly in services. Domestically, economic activity rebounded in Q3 following prior weakness but is expected to soften into 2025, with employment decelerating and downside risks persisting. Inflation eased, with headline inflation falling to 4.55% in November from 4.76% in October, and core inflation declining from 3.80% to 3.58%. While core inflation reflects an ongoing downward trend, persistent inflation in services led Banxico to revise inflation forecasts slightly upward, with headline inflation now expected to converge to the 3% target by Q3 2026. The bank signaled further rate cuts may be appropriate, potentially of greater magnitude, depending on the disinflation pace and economic outlook.