智利央行在12月的会议上一致投票决定将政策利率下调25个基点至5%，这反映了持续的外部和国内挑战。在全球范围内，美国经济仍然具有弹性，而中国的疲软对铜价造成了压力，铜价目前接近4美元/磅。全球不确定性上升、长期利率和美元走强给智利比索带来了压力，自上次会议以来，智利比索贬值了6%。在国内，第三季度的活动与预测一致，但私人消费和投资疲软，尤其是在采矿业以外。由于比索贬值、工资上涨和电价上涨导致成本上升，11月通货膨胀率达到4.2%，高于预期。短期通胀压力可能会在2025年上半年将利率推向5%，尽管国内需求疲软可能会从长远来看缓解压力。央行仍然保持谨慎，重申其灵活的方法，以确保通货膨胀在两年内收敛到3%。
The Central Bank of Chile unanimously voted to reduce the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 5% at its December meeting, reflecting persistent external and domestic challenges. Globally, the U.S. economy remains resilient, while China’s weakness weighs on copper prices, now near $4/lb. Rising global uncertainty, long-term interest rates, and a stronger dollar have pressured Chile’s peso, which depreciated 6% since the last meeting. Domestically, Q3 activity aligned with forecasts but showed weak private consumption and investment, particularly outside the mining sector. Inflation reached 4.2% in November, above projections, due to higher costs from peso depreciation, rising wages, and electricity tariffs. Short-term inflation pressures may push rates toward 5% in H1 2025, though weaker domestic demand could ease pressures longer term. The Central Bank remains cautious, reaffirming its flexible approach to ensure inflation converges to 3% within two years.
