巴西3年期国债 (Brazil3Y) 加自选

周五，Ibovespa指数上涨0.8%，收于122102点，从早盘下跌中恢复过来，将圣保罗交易所的周跌幅降至2%。自上周以来，央行的积极干预，包括今天30亿美元的现货拍卖，使货币市场干预总额达到237.5亿美元，有助于稳定巴西雷亚尔。然而，这些行动也突显了日益增长的财政风险，参议院批准的稀释PEC加剧了这一风险，削弱了政府的支出削减，并引发了人们对财政整顿的担忧。主要银行领涨，桑坦德银行、巴西银行、Itaúsa和Bradesco上涨0.9%至2.1%。表现强劲的包括Localiza、Rede D'Or、B3、Natura、Hypermarcas和Lojas Renner，其股价飙升2.3%至4.9%。相比之下，非周期性消费品和工业类股表现不佳，Ambev下跌3.8%，WEG下跌1.9%。

The Ibovespa gained 0.8% to close at 122,102 on Friday, recovering from early losses and reducing the São Paulo exchange’s weekly decline to 2%. The central bank’s aggressive interventions, including a $3 billion spot auction today, have brought total currency market interventions to $23.75 billion since last week, helping to stabilize the Brazilian real. However, these actions also underscored growing fiscal risks, amplified by the Senate’s approval of a diluted PEC that weakened the government’s spending cuts and raised concerns over fiscal consolidation. Major banks led the rebound, with Banco Santander, Banco do Brasil, Itaúsa, and Bradesco rising 0.9% to 2.1%. Strong performers included Localiza, Rede D'Or, B3, Natura, Hypermarcas, and Lojas Renner, which surged 2.3% to 4.9%. In contrast, consumer non-cyclicals and industrial stocks faltered, with Ambev dropping 3.8% and WEG falling 1.9%.

周五，Ibovespa指数小幅跌破121100点左右的水平，使圣保罗交易所每周暴跌2.8%以上，为6月以来的最低水平，因为巴西资产在持续的财政担忧中经历了大幅抛售。央行的激进行动，包括今天的30亿美元现货拍卖，使自上周以来的干预总额达到237.5亿美元，这些干预措施有效地阻止了巴西货币的大幅抛售。在缓解流动性压力的同时，这些行动也突显了日益增加的财政风险，而参议院批准的一项淡化的PEC则加剧了这一风险，该PEC削弱了政府的削减开支计划，并对财政整顿产生了怀疑。消费类非周期性股票和工业类股票领跌，权重股Ambev跌至底部，跌幅超过5%，其次是大型股WEG，跌幅超过2%。JBS、Suzano和BRF也出现了其他显著下跌，跌幅在1.7%至2.3%之间。

The Ibovespa edged below the flatline around the 121,100 level on Friday, setting the São Paulo exchange for a weekly plunge of over 2.8% and the lowest levels since June, as Brazilian assets experienced a sharp selloff amid lingering fiscal concerns. The central bank’s aggressive actions, including today’s $3 billion spot auction, bringing total interventions to $23.75 billion since last week, the interventions effectively halted the sharp selloff in the Brazilian currency. While easing liquidity pressures, these actions also highlighted mounting fiscal risks, compounded by the approval of a watered-down PEC in the Senate, which weakened the government's spending cut package and left doubts about fiscal consolidation. Consumer non-cyclicals and industrial equities led the decline, with heavyweight Ambev at the bottom, losing over 5%, followed by mega-cap WEG, which dropped more than 2%. Other notable losses were seen in JBS, Suzano, and BRF, which were down between 1.7% and 2.3%.

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率突破6.1，从12月18日的6.29的历史低点反弹，这是由于央行在财政不确定的情况下采取了积极的外汇干预措施来稳定货币。在过去的一周里，巴西央行通过现货拍卖和额度操作（有回购协议）向市场注入了超过277.5亿美元，显著增加了美元流动性，缓解了雷亚尔的压力。在国会政府财政方案取得进展后，市场情绪也有所改善，包括参议院批准削减开支、降低通过提供经济福利促进收入分配的计划的资格以及限制人员开支。虽然这些措施缓解了财政担忧，并支持了雷亚尔的复苏，但前景仍因政府实现可持续财政整顿能力的持续不确定性而蒙上阴影。

The Brazilian real strengthened past 6.1 per USD, rebounding from a record low of 6.29 on December 18, driven by aggressive foreign exchange interventions by the central bank to stabilize the currency amid fiscal uncertainties. Over the past week, the BCB injected over $27.75 billion into the market through spot auctions and line operations (with repurchase agreements), significantly increasing dollar liquidity and alleviating pressure on the real. Market sentiment also improved following progress on the government’s fiscal package in Congress, including Senate approval of spending cuts, reduced eligibility for programs aimed to promote income distribution by providing financial benefits, and limits on personnel expenses. While these measures provided relief to fiscal concerns and supported the real’s recovery, the outlook remains clouded by lingering uncertainty over the government’s ability to achieve sustainable fiscal consolidation.

2024年12月，经季节性调整的巴西FGV-IBRE消费者信心指数降至92，为六个月来的最低水平，较上月的95.6大幅下降。12月信心的恶化主要是由于对未来几个月的预期恶化（-4.9点至六个月低点98.5），以及在较小程度上对当前形势的看法（-1.4点至三个月低点82.9）。FGV IBRE经济学家Anna Carolina Gouveia表示：“这一结果在各收入群体中也很普遍，尤其是最低收入群体。最近利率的上升，再加上食品等商品的通胀压力，可能导致2024年最后一个月消费者的悲观情绪加剧，导致对未来几个月财务状况的预期恶化。”。

The seasonally adjusted FGV-IBRE Consumer Confidence Index for Brazil eased to 92 in December 2024, the lowest reading in six months, down sharply from 95.6 in the prior month. The deterioration in confidence in December was mainly driven by the worsening of expectations regarding the coming months (-4.9 points to a six-month low of 98.5), and, to a lesser extent, perceptions about the current situation (-1.4 points to a three-month low of 82.9). "The result was also widespread across income groups, with particular emphasis on the lowest-income group. The recent increase in interest rates, combined with inflationary pressures on items such as food, may be contributing to growing pessimism among consumers in the last month of 2024, leading to worsened expectations about their financial situation in the coming months," said Anna Carolina Gouveia, economist at FGV IBRE.