南非20年期国债 (SouthAfrica20Y) 加自选

南非兰特兑美元汇率接近18.4，为8月初以来的最低水平，因为美联储对利率的鹰派展望加强了美元，给南非等新兴经济体带来了压力。高于预期的利率前景使风险较高的新兴市场投资不那么有吸引力，而美元的强势在一定程度上受到特朗普政策的支持，可能会抑制资本流入并威胁经济稳定。在国内，南非的积极通胀趋势表明，2025年可能会降息，尽管南非储备银行不太可能一次降息超过25个基点。11月消费者价格通胀率从10月的2.8%升至2.9%，仍远低于央行4.5%的中点目标。与此同时，南非经济在第三季度收缩了0.3%，使其有望实现今年的增长目标，总统西里尔·拉马福萨的民族团结政府计划的延误也产生了影响。

The South African rand traded near 18.4 per USD, its weakest level since early August, as the US Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook on interest rates strengthened the dollar, adding pressure on emerging economies like South Africa. The prospect of higher-than-expected rates makes riskier emerging market investments less attractive, while the dollar's strength, partly supported by Trump’s policies, could curb capital inflows and threaten economic stability. Domestically, positive inflation trends in South Africa point to potential interest rate cuts in 2025, although the SARB is unlikely to reduce rates by more than 25 basis points at a time. Consumer price inflation rose to 2.9% in November from 2.8% in October, still well below the central bank's midpoint target of 4.5%. Meanwhile, South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.3% in Q3, putting it on track to miss growth targets for the year, with delays in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government of national unity plans also weighing.

2024年10月，南非综合领先商业周期指标环比上涨1.1%，此前一个月上调1.4%，因为十个可用组成部分时间序列中有八个的增长超过了其余两个的下降。最重要的积极因素是销售的新乘用车和招聘广告空间的六个月平滑增长率的加速。唯一的负面因素是批准的住宅建筑计划数量下降，实际M1货币供应量的六个月平滑增长率放缓。

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa advanced by 1.1% month-over-month in October 2024, following an upwardly revised 1.4% rise in the previous month, as increases in eight of the ten available component time series outweighed decreases in the remaining two. The most significant positive contributors were an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicles sold and job advertisement space. The only negative contributors were a decline in the number of residential building plans approved and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply.

根据央行数据，南非报告称，2024年第三季度外国直接投资（FDI）流出32亿南非兰特，与第二季度的166亿南非兰特流入大幅逆转，标志着自2020年第三季以来的首次流出。这一转变是由国内子公司偿还贷款推动的，这超过了非居民母公司在这些单位的股权投资。与此同时，在此期间，证券投资流入456亿南非兰特，这是两年来的首次，扭转了上一季度201亿南非兰特的流出。资金流入主要是因为外国投资者增加了对公开交易的政府债券的购买，这表明在连续八个季度的股权外流之后，人们对南非的债务证券重新产生了兴趣。南非商业友好型联合政府的成立引发了一波投资公告和多年未见的积极情绪。

South Africa reported foreign direct investment (FDI) outflows of ZAR 3.2 billion in Q3 2024, a sharp reversal from the ZAR 16.6 billion inflows seen in Q2 and marking the first outflow since Q3 2020, according to central bank data. This shift was driven by the repayment of loans by domestic subsidiaries, which outweighed equity investments made by non-resident parent entities in these units. Meanwhile, portfolio investments posted inflows of ZAR 45.6 billion during the period, the first in two years, reversing outflows of ZAR 20.1 billion in the previous quarter. The inflows occurred primarily because foreign investors increased their purchases of publicly traded government bonds, signaling renewed interest in South Africa's debt securities following eight consecutive quarters of equity outflows. The formation of South Africa’s business-friendly coalition government triggered a wave of investment announcements and positive sentiment not seen in years.

南非10年期政府债券收益率略高于9%，为11月19日以来的最高水平，因为该国的固定收益资产在全球经济不确定性中仍然极具吸引力。这源于它们与全球紧张局势的相对隔离，以及对美国潜在贸易关税的直接接触有限。自5月选举以来，投资者对南非资产的情绪有所改善，这得益于新政府下的政治稳定以及暂停减负荷后经济前景的改善。与此同时，对抗通胀的进展使储备银行能够在9月和11月降低基准借贷成本，使回购利率从8.25%降至7.75%。2024年11月，南非的年通货膨胀率微升至2.9%，略高于10月的2.8%，但仍远低于南非储备银行首选的4.5%的中点目标。

South Africa's 10-year government bond yield was slightly above 9%, its highest since November 19th, as the country’s fixed-income assets remain highly attractive amidst global economic uncertainty. This stems from their relative insulation from global tensions and limited direct exposure to potential U.S. trade tariffs. Investor sentiment toward South African assets has improved since the May elections, driven by perceived political stability under the new government and an improved economic outlook following the suspension of load shedding. Meanwhile, progress in the fight against inflation enabled the Reserve Bank to cut benchmark borrowing costs in both September and November, bringing the repo rate down from 8.25% to 7.75%. The annual inflation rate in South Africa edged up to 2.9% in November 2024, slightly up from 2.8% in October, though remaining well below the South African Reserve Bank's preferred midpoint target of 4.5%.