金价保持在每盎司2620美元以下,因投资者继续关注美联储鹰派的迹象,过去一周的涨幅有所收窄,交易波动有限。有弹性的劳动力市场数据和顽固通货膨胀的证据促使联邦公开市场委员会成员预测美联储在2025年将减少降息,增加了持有非收益性资产的机会,并迫使金价在第四季度小幅下跌。尽管如此,金价仍将在年底上涨27%。自降息周期开始以来,美联储降息100个基点,包括9月份失业率突然上升后降息50个基点。由于乌克兰、加沙、黎巴嫩的战争和伊朗的导弹袭击,全年对避险资产的需求增加,也支撑了黄金。最后,在中国央行努力增加储备的带动下,央行大量购买黄金,使金价在9月份升至2790美元的历史新高。
Gold held below $2,620 per ounce, trimming gains from earlier in the session to trade with limited movement in the past week as investors continued to heed signs of a hawkish Federal Reserve. Resilient labor market data per payroll counts and evidence of stubborn inflation drove FOMC members to project fewer rate cuts by the Fed in 2025, raising the opportunity to hold non-yielding assets and forcing gold prices to a slight loss in Q4. Still, gold is due to end the year 27% higher. The Fed delivered 100bps in interest rate cuts since the start of its cutting cycle, including a 50bps cut in September following a sudden rise in the unemployment rate. Gold was also supported by heightened demand for safe-haven assets throughout the year amid war in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, and missile strikes from Iran. Lastly, gold was lifted by large volumes of central bank buying, led by efforts by the PBoC to stoke up reserves, lifting prices to a record high of $2,790 in September.