铁矿 (IronOre) 加自选

澳元期货（2025年3月6日）：需关注的关键价格水平[2025年1月2日]。澳元期货（2025年3月6A日）的交易价格为0.62150，与FXCM的澳元/美元外汇对0.62140密切相关。以下是指导您今天和未来几天交易决策的关键水平和信号。

Australian Dollar Futures (6A Mar 2025): Key Price Levels to Watch [Jan 02, 2025].The Australian Dollar Futures (6A March 2025) are trading at 0.62150, closely aligned with the AUD/USD Forex pair on FXCM at 0.62140. Below are the key levels and signals to guide your trading decisions for today and the days ahead.

澳大利亚储备银行的商品价格指数在12月同比下降10.7%，较11月向下修正的10.8%略有回落。这标志着大宗商品价格连续第22次下跌，主要原因是铁矿石和焦煤价格下跌。以澳元计算，该指数下跌了7.4%。按月度计算，12月大宗商品价格上涨0.6%，低于11月向上修正的1.3%的涨幅。农村和非农村分项指数的上涨被贱金属分项指数的下降部分抵消。以澳元计算，该指数在12月上涨了3.1%。

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Index of Commodity Prices dropped 10.7% year-on-year in December, easing slightly from a downwardly revised 10.8% decline in November. This marked the 22nd consecutive drop in commodity prices, driven primarily by lower iron ore and coking coal prices. In Australian dollar terms, the index decreased by 7.4%. On a monthly basis, commodity prices rose 0.6% in December, slowing from an upwardly revised 1.3% increase in November. Gains in rural and non-rural subindices were partially offset by a decline in the base metals subindex. In Australian dollar terms, the index rose 3.1% in December.

周四，澳元飙升至0.62美元以上，从两年低点回升，大宗商品价格走强提供支撑，有利于澳大利亚作为关键资源净出口国的地位。澳元也因美元走软而上涨，投资者在年初对美元变得更加谨慎。然而，一项私人调查显示，澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴中国的制造业活动在12月放缓，低于对更快扩张的预期。与此同时，国内数据显示，12月澳大利亚制造业衰退加剧。2024年，澳元下跌了约9%，主要是由于澳大利亚储备银行对经济问题的反应越来越温和。市场预期4月将降息25个基点，一些人猜测最早可能在2月降息。

The Australian dollar surged above $0.62 on Thursday, recovering from two-year lows as stronger commodity prices provided support, benefiting Australia’s position as a net exporter of key resources. The Aussie also gained as the US dollar softened, with investors becoming more cautious on the greenback at the start of the year. However, a private survey revealed that manufacturing activity in China—Australia’s largest trading partner—slowed in December, falling short of expectations for a faster expansion. At the same time, domestic data showed that Australia's manufacturing downturn worsened in December. The Aussie fell around 9% in 2024, largely due to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s increasingly dovish stance in response to economic concerns. Market expectations now point to a quarter-point rate cut in April, with some speculating that a move could occur as early as February.

随着投资者消化了最新的采购经理人指数数据，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.48%左右。柔道银行的最终数据显示，该国的工厂活动比最初想象的要萎缩得多，标志着制造业状况连续第11个月恶化。这支持了对鸽派澳大利亚储备银行的预期。然而，调查还表明，成本压力持续存在，年底出厂价格仍处于高位，这与这一观点相反。最近，政策制定者对通货膨胀越来越有信心，但强调风险依然存在。董事会强调，在通胀更确定地恢复到2-3%的目标之前，保持“足够严格”的货币政策非常重要。交易员直到4月才完全消化了25个基点的走势。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.48% as investors digested the latest PMI data. Final figures from Judo Bank showed that the country’s factory activity shrank more than initially thought, marking the eleventh consecutive month of deteriorating manufacturing conditions. This supported expectations for a dovish RBA. However, the survey also indicated that cost pressures persisted, with factory gate prices remaining elevated at the year-end, countering this notion. Recently, policymakers have become more confident about inflation, but highlighting that risks remain. The board emphasized the importance of maintaining 'sufficiently restrictive' monetary policy until there is more certainty that inflation returns to the 2–3% target. Traders have not fully priced in a quarter-point move until April.