牛奶 (Milk) 加自选

周四，新西兰元兑美元汇率保持在0.601美元左右，接近两个多月来的低点，因为人们越来越期望美联储在未来几个月内将适度降息，唐纳德·特朗普赢得2024年总统大选的可能性也在上升，美元走强。在国内，新西兰元面临进一步的压力，因为新西兰储备银行预计将在11月的最后一次会议上再次降息50个基点，市场预计有75个基点的风险。此举将标志着央行今年第三次降息，此前8月降息25个基点，10月降息50个基点。

The New Zealand dollar held around $0.601 on Thursday, trading close to an over two-month low as the US dollar strengthened amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will pursue modest interest rate cuts in the months ahead and the rising odds of Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election. Domestically, the Kiwi faced further pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to deliver another 50-bps rate cut at its final meeting of the year in November, with markets pricing some risk of a 75-point move. Such a move would mark the central bank’s third interest rate reduction this year, following a 25-bps cut in August and 50-bps reduction in October.

周四，澳元稳定在0.664美元左右，但交易接近两个月来的最低水平，因为美元和国债收益率因对美联储更谨慎降息的预期以及特朗普将在11月获胜的押注而进一步上涨。在国内，投资者消化的数据显示，随着服务业活动进一步扩大，10月份澳大利亚私营部门活动接近稳定，而制造业活动以2020年5月以来的最快速度收缩。在货币政策方面，澳大利亚储备银行副行长Andrew Hauser本周早些时候表示，强劲的就业增长令人略感意外，同时表明央行已准备好根据即将公布的数据在任何一个方向做出回应。市场预计澳大利亚储备银行今年将保持政策稳定，第一次降息要到明年5月才能完全消化。

The Australian dollar steadied around $0.664 on Thursday, but traded close to its lowest levels in two months as the greenback and Treasury yields rallied further on expectations of more cautious Federal Reserve rate cuts and bets that Trump will win in November. Domestically, investors digested data showing private sector activity in Australia neared stabilization in October as services activity expanded further, while manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace since May 2020. On the monetary policy front, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said earlier this week that strong employment growth came as a slight surprise, while indicating that the central bank is ready to respond in either direction depending on incoming data. Markets expect the RBA to hold policy steady this year, with the first rate cut not fully priced in until May next year.

澳大利亚制造业采购经理人指数触及53个月低点，通胀压力缓解。澳大利亚制造业继续挣扎，10月份PMI制造业指数从46.7微降至46.6，为53个月来的最低点。柔道银行的Matthew De Pasquale表示，产出和新订单等关键指标已降至表明该行业“濒临衰退”的水平。

Australian's PMI manufacturing hits 53-month low, inflation pressures easing.Australia's manufacturing sector continues to struggle, with PMI Manufacturing index slipping slightly from 46.7 to 46.6 in October, marking its lowest point in 53 months. According to Judo Bank's Matthew De Pasquale, key indicators such as output and new orders have dropped to levels that signal the sector is “on the verge of recession.

随着投资者消化最新的采购经理人指数数据，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率保持在4.5%以上，徘徊在5月初以来的最高水平附近。10月份的PMI数据显示，经济活动有所改善，主要受服务业的推动，而制造业的收缩速度略快。在货币政策方面，在一份可靠的就业报告发布后，市场目前认为澳大利亚储备银行今年降息的可能性只有20%，第一次宽松政策要到明年5月才能完全消化。在其他地方，由于一系列积极的经济数据，投资者降低了对美联储近期大幅降息的预期，同时在竞争激烈的美国总统大选之前做好了准备。

Australia's 10-year government bond yield held above 4.5%, hovering near its highest level since early May, as investors digested the latest PMI data. October’s flash PMI figures indicated an improvement in economic activity, driven primarily by the services sector, while the manufacturing sector contracted at a slightly faster pace. On the monetary policy front, markets currently see only a 20% chance of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia this year following a solid jobs report, with the first easing not fully priced in until May next year. Elsewhere, investors have tempered their expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the near term amid a run of positive economic data, while positioning ahead of what appears to be a closely contested US presidential election.