周四，美元指数最近反弹至104.4左右，徘徊在近三个月来的最高水平，因为人们越来越期望美联储在进一步降息时会更加谨慎，前总统唐纳德·特朗普重新入主白宫的可能性也越来越大。美元也受到美国国债收益率上升的支撑，基准10年期国债周三达到4.26%的盘中高点。这些举措出台之际，美国强劲的就业、消费者通胀和零售销售数据表明经济仍然强劲。美联储的施密德本周表示，他不希望采取过大的举措，而美联储的哈克则呼吁采取更温和的方法来进一步放松。在政治方面，市场押注特朗普可能会在11月获胜，鉴于他的通胀政策，如提高关税和降低税收，这对美元和国债收益率来说是一个看涨的情景。美元兑日元攀升至三个月高点，兑欧元攀升至四个月高点。

The dollar index held its recent rally to around 104.4 on Thursday, hovering at its highest levels in almost three months on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in cutting interest rates further and rising odds that former President Donald Trump will retake the White House. The greenback was also underpinned by rising Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year note reaching an intraday high of 4.26% on Wednesday. Those moves came as strong US jobs, consumer inflation and retail sales data indicated a still robust economy. Fed’s Schmid said this week he would not prefer outsized moves, while Fed’s Harker called for a more moderate approach to further easing. On the political front, markets are betting that Trump will likely win in November, a bullish scenario for the dollar and Treasury yields given his inflationary policies such as higher tariffs and lower taxes. The dollar climbed to a three-month high on the yen and a four-month high on the euro.

美元在押注美联储放缓降息、特朗普可能获胜方面表现突出。周四，美元兑主要货币汇率接近三个月高点，受美联储降息步伐放缓的预期以及对唐纳德·特朗普可能连任总统的押注增加的支撑。

Dollar stands tall on bets for slower Fed cuts, potential Trump win.The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency.

纳斯达克100指数期货周四反弹，特斯拉在盘后交易中飙升12%，得益于7.39亿美元的汽车监管信贷，第三季度利润好于预期。标准普尔500指数期货也小幅上涨，而道琼斯指数期货则进一步下跌。与此同时，在咨询和基础设施部门的收入低于预期后，IBM在盘后交易中暴跌近3%。在周三的常规交易中，道琼斯指数下跌0.96%，标准普尔500指数下跌0.92%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.6%。这些损失发生之际，美国国债收益率上升继续拖累股市，而投资者在第三季度财报季中表现良好。在强劲的经济数据下，基准10年期美国国债收益率达到4.25%，同时美联储官员对未来降息的步伐发出了谨慎的基调。投资者现在期待周四UPS、美国航空公司和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司等公司的更多收益。

Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded on Thursday as Tesla surged 12% in after-hours trading on better-than-expected third quarter profit bolstered by $739 million in automotive regulatory credit. S&P 500 futures also edged up while Dow futures fell further. Meanwhile, IBM tumbled nearly 3% in extended trading after its consulting and infrastructure units fell short of revenue expectations. In regular trading on Wednesday, the Dow fell 0.96%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.92% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.6%. Those losses came as rising Treasury yields continued to weigh on equities, while investors navigated the third quarter earnings season. The benchmark 10-year US yield reached 4.25% amid strong economic data and as Fed officials sounded a cautious tone over the pace of future rate cuts. Investors now look ahead to more earnings on Thursday from UPS, American Airlines and Northrop Grumman, among others.

瑞银坚持其对美元的看法：“没有吸引力”。列举3个卖出反弹的理由。瑞银直言不讳地表示，他们对美元的看法是“没有吸引力”，比如卖出美元强势以减少风险敞口。瑞银引用：在通胀下降的情况下，美联储仍将降息。

UBS maintains its view on the USD: "Unattractive". Cite 3 reasons to sell rallies.UBS are forthright with their view on the US dollar - "Unattractive" - say to sell bouts of dollar strength to reduce exposure. UBS cite: The Fed remains set to lower rates amid lower inflation.