周四，DAX指数上涨0.6%，收于19500点左右，追随欧洲普遍的积极情绪，交易员评估了欧元区和德国的新企业业绩和PMI。德国的短期HCOB PMI超出预期，尽管私营部门活动仍处于收缩区间，但随着服务业增长加速和制造业衰退减弱，出现了一些积极迹象。汽车行业呈绿色，即梅赛德斯-奔驰（1.8%）、宝马（1.6%）、保时捷（2%）和大众（2%）。法国汽车制造商雷诺第三季度收入增长，并支持其前景。拜尔斯道夫也上涨（3.9%），此前该公司报告称，2024年前九个月的销售额增长了6.5%。

The DAX gained 0.6% to trade around the 19500 level on Thursday, tracking a general positive mood in Europe, as traders assess fresh corporate results and PMIs for the Eurozone and Germany. Flash HCOB PMIs for Germany beat forecast and although private sector activity remained in contraction territory, there were some positive signs as services growth accelerated and the downturn in manufacturing softened. The auto sector was in the green, namely Mercedes-Benz (1.8%), BMW (1.6%), Porsche (2%) and VW (2%). French carmaker Renault recorded a rise in revenue in Q3 and backed its outlook. Beiersdorf was also higher (3.9%) after reporting a 6.5% increase in sales for the first nine months of 2024.

初步估计显示，德国HCOB服务业采购经理人指数从上月的50.6升至2024年10月的51.4，好于市场预测的50.6。最新数据显示，德国服务业连续第八个月扩张，这是自7月以来最快的增长，尽管整体增长率仍然温和。尽管服务业公司的就业人数减少幅度超过了9月份，新业务流入连续第二个月下降，但商业预期显著改善。在价格方面，整体投入通胀率仍处于下降轨道，并放缓至2021年2月以来的最低水平。产出价格继续上涨，但增速放缓至三年半以来的最低水平。

The HCOB Germany Services PMI rose to 51.4 in October 2024, up from 50.6 in the prior month and better than market forecasts of 50.6, preliminary estimates showed. The latest reading indicated expansion in the German services sector for the eighth consecutive month, marking the fastest growth since July, though the overall rate remains modest. Even though services companies have reduced employment more than they did in September and new business inflows have fallen for the second month in a row, business expectations have improved significantly. On the price front, the overall rate of input inflation remained on a downward trajectory and slowed to its weakest since February 2021. Output prices continued to rise, but the rate of increase slowed to the weakest for three-and-a-half years.

德国采购经理人指数略有缓解，但结构性弱点依然存在。德国10月经济前景略有改善，PMI制造业指数从40.6升至42.6，而PMI服务业指数从50.6攀升至51.4。这导致综合采购经理人指数从47.5升至48.4，为第四季度初带来了一些希望。

Germany's PMI offers slight relief, but structural weaknesses persist.Germany's economic outlook improved slightly in October, as PMI Manufacturing index rose to 42.6 from 40.6, while PMI Services climbed to 51.4 from 50.6. This led to a rise in Composite PMI to 48.4 from 47.5, offering some hope for the start of Q4.

HCOB Flash德国制造业采购经理人指数从9月份的40.6升至2024年10月的42.6，这是大约一年来的最低水平，超过了40.8的预测。尽管有所增长，但采购经理人指数继续表明制造业正在深度收缩。有报道称，由于经济不确定性加剧以及汽车行业需求疲软，客户不愿消费。新业务流入大幅下降，工厂大门费用创下15年来最大跌幅。此外，制造商还面临着与竞争压力相关的采购价格的另一次显著下降。市场情绪依然消极，与9月份的11个月低点相比几乎没有变化。汉堡商业银行首席经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia博士表示：“制造业很可能在第四季度继续陷入衰退，但明年可能会以更好的基础开始，尽管这一基于一个月改善的评估应该谨慎对待。”。

The HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI rose to 42.6 in October 2024 from 40.6 in September which was the lowest in about a year, beating forecasts of 40.8. Despite the increase, the PMI continues to point to a deep contraction in the manufacturing sector. There were reports of customers refraining from spending due to heightened economic uncertainty alongside weak demand from the auto sector. Inflows of new business fell sharply and factory gate charges posted the steepest drop for more than 15 years. In addition, manufacturers faced another notable drop in purchase prices, linked to competitive pressures. Sentiment remained negative and was little changed from September’s 11-month low. “Manufacturing will most probably continue to be in a recession in the fourth quarter, but it may start the next year on a better footing, although this assessment based on a one-month improvement should be taken with caution", Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said.