周四,澳元兑美元汇率在0.657美元左右,徘徊在8月初以来的最低水平附近,因为投资者对低于预期的零售销售数据做出了反应。澳大利亚9月份零售额仅增长0.1%,与8月份0.7%的增长率相比大幅放缓,并且由于8月份温暖天气的推动作用减弱,零售额增长率低于0.3%的预测。此外,本周早些时候发布的一份喜忧参半的季度国内通胀报告降低了人们对澳大利亚储备银行立即降息的预期。第三季度,澳大利亚储备银行首选的通胀指标——年度平均CPI仅略微放缓至3.5%,仍高于2%-3%的目标范围。澳大利亚储备银行一直强调,核心通胀率仍然过高,无法证明立即降息是合理的。市场普遍预计,澳大利亚储备银行将在下周即将召开的会议上将利率维持在4.35%,预计第一次降息要到明年5月才能进行。
The Australian dollar traded around $0.657 on Thursday, hovering near its lowest levels since early August as investors reacted to weaker-than-expected retail sales data. Retail sales in Australia rose just 0.1% in September, a significant slowdown from the 0.7% growth recorded in August, and fell short of forecasts for a 0.3% increase, as the boost from warmer weather in August faded. Additionally, a mixed quarterly domestic inflation report released earlier this week reduced expectations for an immediate rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The annual trimmed mean CPI, the RBA's preferred measure of inflation, moderated only slightly to 3.5% in Q3, remaining above the target range of 2%-3%. The RBA has consistently highlighted that core inflation remains too high to justify immediate rate cuts. Markets are largely anticipating that the RBA will maintain rates at 4.35% during its upcoming meeting next week, with the first rate cut not expected until May of next year.