由于制裁将俄罗斯与全球金融和大宗商品市场隔离开来，俄罗斯卢布在1月份暴跌至115卢布兑1美元以上，这是有史以来的最低水平，不包括2022年第一季度俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的直接冲击。西方国家制裁莫斯科交易所后，该货币停止了对主要货币对的国内交易，这加大了公司获得硬通货的难度，并迫使俄罗斯银行自6月以来设定外汇价格。这增加了压力，因为中国经济疲软限制了对俄罗斯主要出口伙伴商品的需求，进一步削弱了外汇的流入。能源出口对政府收入的影响促使莫斯科部分放松了支撑卢布的资本管制，让卢布贬值以支持其预算赤字。尽管如此，政治压力促使CBR在12月缩短了紧缩周期，加剧了货币的压力。

The Russian ruble tanked past 115 per USD in January, the lowest on record when excluding the immediate shock after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2022, as sanctions isolated Russia from global financial and commodity markets. The currency was halted from domestic trading against major pairs after Western nations sanctioned the Moscow Exchange, magnifying the difficulty for companies to secure hard currency and forcing the Bank of Russia to set forex prices since June. This added pressure as China’s weakening economy limited demand for goods from Russia’s main export partner, further denting the influx of foreign exchange. The impact on government revenues from energy exports drove Moscow to partially relax the capital controls it had to prop up the ruble, letting it depreciate to support its budget deficit. Despite this, political pressure drove the CBR to cut its tightening cycle short in December, compounding pressure on the currency.

美元兑卢布升至115.00的33个月高点。过去4周，美元兑俄罗斯卢布上涨5.24%，过去12个月上涨20.11%。

USDRUB increased to a 33-month high of 115.00. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Russian Ruble gained 5.24%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 20.11%.

今年年初，俄罗斯10年期自由贸易区的收益率超过15.5%，自年初以来飙升超过320个基点，原因是政府债券供应充足，制裁导致对俄罗斯资产的需求下降，以及俄罗斯银行激进的紧缩周期。卢布暴跌、劳动力危机以及因制裁而改变的供应链导致的通胀飙升，促使央行在今年加息13.5个百分点。在整个政策声明中，央行指出，克里姆林宫的扩张性财政政策和大规模军费开支导致了俄罗斯的通货膨胀，部分资金来自通过拍卖发行的创纪录水平的自由贸易区。尽管如此，由于克里姆林宫和企业主的压力，俄罗斯央行在今年最后一次会议上保持了关键利率，而不是市场预期的200至300个基点的加息，OFZ的收益率在12月有所下降。

The yield on the Russian 10-year OFZ was over the 15.5% mark at the turn of the year, surging over 320bps since the start of the year amid ample supply of government bonds, lower demand for Russian assets due to sanctions, and an aggressive tightening cycle by the Bank of Russia. Surging inflation due to a plunging ruble, a labor-force crisis, and altered supply chains in response to sanctions drove the central bank to deliver 13.5 percentage points in rate hikes in the year. Throughout policy statements, the central bank noted that expansionary fiscal policy and the large-scale military spending by the Kremlin contributed to inflation in Russia, financed in part through record levels of OFZ issuances through auctions. Still, the yield on OFZs eased through December after the CBR held its key rate in the final meeting of the year instead of market expectations that ranged between 200bps-300bps hikes, amid reports of pressure from the Kremlin and business owners.

2024年11月，俄罗斯的失业率为2.3%，保持了上个月的历史最低水平，符合市场预期。这一结果与俄罗斯央行的分析一致，该分析指出，动员俄罗斯公民参军并在乌克兰作战加剧了劳动力短缺，降低了俄罗斯经济的产能。

Russia’s unemployment rate was at 2.3% in November 2024, holding the record low from the previous month and in line with market expectations. The result was in line with the analysis from the Central Bank of Russia, stating that the mobilization of Russian citizens to join the military and fight in Ukraine exacerbated labor shortages and reduced capacity in the Russian economy.