欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——周一早些时候美元走软。在周一交易时段的早些时候，我们看到美元有点疲软，但坦率地说，考虑到过去几个月的大部分时间美元市场一直如此强劲，稍作喘息是有道理的

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Softens Early on Monday.Early during the trading session on Monday, we have seen a bit of US dollar weakness, but quite frankly considering that the market has been so strong for the US dollar most of last few months, to take a bit of a breather makes quite a bit of sense at

澳大利亚证券交易所200指数周一下跌27点，跌幅0.3%，收于8235点，此前在上一交易日达到一周多来的最高水平，主要受房地产、公用事业、金融和工业板块的拖累。周五，由于主要科技公司的抛售，华尔街出现负面交易，随后出现下跌。交易员在新年假期前交易清淡和美国国债收益率高企的情况下持谨慎态度。上周发布的澳大利亚储备银行货币政策会议的最新纪要限制了跌幅，该纪要显示，央行对通胀正在可持续地朝着目标迈进更有信心，这增加了2月份会议降息的希望。在大幅下跌的大盘股中，包括Summerset Group（-4.0%）、Home Consortium（-3.0%）、Charter Hall（-2.3%）、Block股份有限公司CDI（-2.5%）和Ramsay Health Care（-2.0%）。

The ASX 200 dropped 27 points, or 0.3%, to close at 8,235 on Monday, after reaching its highest level in over a week during the previous session, mainly weighed down by real estate, utilities, financials, and industrials. The declines followed a negative session on Wall Street on Friday, due to a sell-off in major technology companies. Traders were cautious amid thin trading ahead of the New Year holiday and high US Treasury yields. Capping the declines were the latest minutes from the RBA's monetary policy meeting, released last week, which showed the central bank is more confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward its target, raising hopes for rate cuts in the February meeting. Among large-cap stocks that saw deep losses were Summerset Group (-4.0%), Home Consortium (-3.0%), Charter Hall (-2.3%), Block Inc. CDI (-2.5%), and Ramsay Health Care (-2.0%).

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率跃升至4.52%左右，达到一个多月来的最高水平。国内收益率跟随美国债券收益率的上升，这是由于人们预计当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易和移民政策将加剧通货膨胀，而他提出的减税将增加美国的债务负担。在国内，澳大利亚储备银行12月的会议纪要显示，政策制定者对控制通货膨胀的信心日益增强，尽管人们承认存在持续的风险。澳大利亚储备银行强调，在通胀不确定性降低并实现2-3%的目标之前，需要采取“足够严格”的政策。央行重申，将通胀率恢复到目标水平是其首要任务，并强调了未来利率决策的数据驱动方法。市场暗示，澳大利亚储备银行在2月份的下一次会议上将利率下调25个基点的可能性存在分歧，而到4月份，首次宽松政策的价格已经完全消化。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield jumped to around 4.52%, reaching its highest level in over a month. Domestic yields followed the rise in U.S. bond yields, driven by expectations that President-elect Donald Trump's trade and immigration policies would fuel inflation and his proposed tax cuts would add to the U.S. debt burden. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s December meeting minutes revealed growing confidence among policymakers in controlling inflation, though ongoing risks were acknowledged. The RBA emphasized the need for a "sufficiently restrictive" policy until inflation uncertainty is reduced and the 2–3% target is achieved. The central bank reiterated that bringing inflation back to target is its top priority and stressed a data-driven approach to future rate decisions. Markets imply a split chance that the RBA can lower interest rates by 25 bps at its next meeting in February, while a first easing is more than fully priced in by April.

澳元上涨至0.62美元左右，但仍接近两年低点，反映出在假日交易环境疲软的情况下，澳元仍面临挑战。12月初，澳大利亚储备银行采取了温和的基调，首次引入了明确的宽松政策。这一转变是由消费者支出、工资增长和住房相关通胀低于预期的趋势推动的。因此，市场早在2月份就开始预计降息的可能性约为50%。投资者现在正密切关注下周公布的11月通胀数据，以及受黑色星期五购物影响的零售销售数据。这些数据预计将提供通胀和经济活动轨迹的早期信号，有助于塑造对澳大利亚储备银行2月份即将做出的政策决定的预期。

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.62 but remained near two-year lows, reflecting its ongoing challenges amid a subdued holiday trading environment. Earlier in December, the Reserve Bank of Australia adopted a dovish tone, introducing an explicit easing bias for the first time. This shift was driven by weaker-than-expected trends in consumer spending, wage growth, and housing-related inflation. As a result, markets began pricing in roughly a 50-50 chance of a rate cut as early as February. Investors are now closely watching next week’s release of November’s inflation data, along with retail sales figures influenced by Black Friday shopping. These releases are expected to provide early signals on the trajectory of inflation and economic activity, helping shape expectations for the RBA’s upcoming policy decision in February.